Back Home Weekly Videos Silver Went Parabolic — The Next Trade Is Still Forgotten Your browser does not support the video tag. Published: 01/24/2026 | Time: N/A Description In this week's video, I argue that markets are at a clear inflection point in the AI trade, moving away from software abundance and toward physical scarcity. While investors are trying to short semiconductors and bottom-fish software, leadership has shifted decisively to energy, materials, and industrials, especially silver, copper, and critical minerals. These are not cyclical trades, despite their history, but structural ones, driven by the physical requirements of AI: power generation, grid infrastructure, advanced chips, memory, and industrial inputs and the Jensen Huang declaration of $85T of infrastructure buildout over the next 15 years. Silver, in particular, is reframed not as a precious metal but as a critical industrial input across AI factories, data centers, drones, robotics, EVs, and military systems, making demand price-inelastic. This physical upgrade cycle is still in its early innings and is expected to dominate returns for years. Hardware bottlenecks and geopolitics define the next decade AI’s true constraint is not algorithms but the conversion of raw energy into intelligence, which occurs through two bottlenecked pathways: power infrastructure (turbines, transformers, switchgear) and compute infrastructure (GPUs, high-bandwidth memory, advanced packaging). Massive global investment, potentially tens of trillions of dollars, is required to build this stack, and shortages in copper, silver, energy equipment, and memory will persist for a decade or more. This dynamic is deeply geopolitical, driving competition over critical mineral supply chains in regions like Greenland, Venezuela, Brazil, and emerging markets broadly. As a result, materials, energy, EM equities, and small caps are structurally under-owned and mispriced relative to over-concentrated U.S. large-cap tech. Software disruption, agentic AI, and delayed monetization On the software side, agentic AI and “vibe coding” are exploding application supply, undermining the traditional SaaS model built on standardized workflows and seat-based pricing. Enterprises increasingly demand fully customized workflows, analogous to “one drug per patient”, which rigid SaaS platforms struggle to deliver. This creates structural margin pressure, longer sales cycles, and valuation risk, even if revenues don’t collapse immediately. At the same time, AI capability is advancing far faster than enterprise adoption, creating a near-term monetization air pocket despite enormous long-term potential. The winners will be firms that deeply integrate AI into core workflows (the top ~12% of adopters), while investors should favor scarcity-driven assets tied to the physical AI buildout and remain patient on crypto, which the speaker believes will eventually mirror the parabolic moves seen in commodities. read more Discover More Valuations Are Falling for a Reason: AI Is Repricing the Future Published: 02/22/2026 Time: 46min Financials Are Warning Conditions are Tightening: Oil, AI and Credit Are Colliding Published: 03/08/2026 Time: N/A Outlook: The AI → Physical World Inflection Published: 01/03/2026 Time: N/A Data Center Delays vs. Infinite AI Demand: The 2026 Bottleneck Trade Published: 01/10/2026 Time: N/A The SaaS-Pocalypse, Bitcoin Crash and Why Understanding Palantir is Now Important for Both of Them Published: 02/08/2026 Time: 61min Oil, AI, and Private Credit: The New Market Stress Cycle Published: 03/15/2026 Time: 50min Semis vs Software Is Breaking the Market (Scarcity vs Abundance) Published: 01/17/2026 Time: N/A Agent Swarms, OpenAI Virus, And The Age Of Parabolic Volatility Published: 02/01/2026 Time: N/A Supersonic Tsunami Hits SaaS: My Turbulence Model Is Flashing Risk Published: 02/15/2026 Time: N/A 2025 TACO PTSD – Why Strategists, Analysts, and Investors Are Still Fighting the Last War Published: 03/22/2026 Time: 55min